
Booked on Planning
Booked on Planning
APA's 2025 Trend Report
The world of planning is transforming at a rapid pace, and staying ahead requires more than just reacting to change—it demands foresight. In this conversation, we welcome back Petra Hurtado to discuss the American Planning Association's 2025 Trend Report, now in its fourth year of helping planners anticipate the forces reshaping our communities.
Petra highlights how "the only constant is accelerating change," explaining the sophisticated trend scouting process that brings diverse perspectives together to identify crucial developments across multiple fields. From technology to climate, work patterns to public spaces, the report categorizes trends into actionable timeframes: Act Now, Prepare, and Learn and Watch.
Ready to future-proof your planning approach? Download the complete 2025 Trend Report from APA's website and start incorporating these insights into your community's planning process today.
Show Notes:
- Check out the full report on APA’s website here.
- Trend Universe: https://planning.org/foresight/trends/
- Further Reading:
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This episode is brought to you by JEO Consulting Group. Jeo is a full-service firm offering engineering, architecture, surveying and planning to clients throughout the Midwest. Since JEO's beginnings in 1937, they have grown to more than 12 offices across Nebraska, iowa and Kansas. With over 250 employees, they provide innovative and cost-effective solutions for both public and private sectors. The JEO team of professional engineers, architects, surveyors, planners and financial experts all work in concert with skilled technicians and support professionals to exceed their clients' expectations. You're listening to the Booked On Planning podcast, a project of the Nebraska chapter of the American Planning Association. In each episode, we dive into how cities function by talking with authors on housing, transportation and everything in between. Join us as we get Booked on Planning. In this episode, we talk with Petra Hurtado about APA's 2025 trend report. We've been covering the trend report each year since it came out and it's been interesting, this year especially, to start to see the trends evolve and either grow or fade into the background.
Jennifer Hiatt:I think this is the episode I look forward to most each year. The trend report is always so fascinating, and Petra makes the point that now that the trend report is in its fourth year, we can really start tracking timelines for these topics as well.
Stephanie Rouse:The timing of this episode works out really well as we're about to head to APA National, to the conference in Denver this weekend, where Petra and her team will be talking about the trend report and hosting learning labs For all of our listeners headed to the conference. Make sure to check out those sessions and since Jennifer and I will also be there, we hope to see you there.
Jennifer Hiatt:Yes, we really look forward to seeing everyone at the conference and hopefully we can discuss the trends report in person with some of our listeners. Let's get into our conversation with Petra Hurtado about the APA 2025 trends report.
Stephanie Rouse:Well, Petra, welcome back to Booked On Planning. We're happy to have you on to talk about APA's 2025 trend report, now in its fourth year. What are some of the biggest changes that you've observed in the trends? Broken out into Act Now, Prepare and Learn and Watch over the years.
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, thank you so much for having me. It's always a pleasure to talk with you. Well, you know, I would say, in general, the only constant is really accelerating change at this point and things are just really moving so fast, which really shows how important this work really is and how important it is to practice foresight. But otherwise, I mean, there's a risk to really, you know, getting lost if you don't track all of these trends.
Petra Hurtado:Looking at tech trends, keeping track of all of the new developments and especially the evolution of artificial intelligence, is obviously a big one here, and for us it really is a reason why we started a plant tech advisory group. That really helps us to do that, because there's just so much going on and it's really easy to lose track there. The other one, obviously, I think the elephant in every conversation in the room at this point the political environment right now. Just looking at the last six weeks, you know, essentially turned out the whole world upside down, which you know most of the trends that we're talking about in the trend report are unchanged in this respect, but the way we have to look at them might've changed in the last six weeks. So, yeah, it's really, I think the big thing is really the pace of change and how things evolve.
Jennifer Hiatt:So Stephanie and I both watched the webcast that you guys put out on the trend report as well, and it was very clear there that you use a trend scouting team to make sure you have a diverse group of perspectives. So I was wondering how you put that team together and how do you decide what goes into the report, as you guys are working as a team.
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, so the trend scout community has really evolved over the last four years and we really originally started out with leaders from our APA divisions, so planners from different planning fields. But we very soon realized in this work, doing foresight, we really need to look outside of the box. So in this case, really looking outside of the planner's box and so we started expanding this group in the second year really to different professions, also including people from outside of the US and especially also including younger people to get really the future at the table when we talk about the future. And so how are we doing that? So to some part we do active recruiting really, you know, identifying the gaps of like what is a topic where we see a lot of emerging trends, but we don't really have an expert in that field in the group. So we really go into LinkedIn and other places to find those experts through networking at different conferences in the US and in other places in the world. We also get a lot of recommendations of trend scouts that tell us hey, I just had a conversation with this person the other day and they really have a lot to contribute on this or that topic. So then they recommend those to us and then sometimes just people reach out to us people that you know, for example, saw that print report launch let's say, hey, I, you know, I think I could also contribute to this. And then you know, if we feel like they're a good fit, then we usually include them as well. So it's really a variety of ways on how we find these people. What is really great for us to see is that we always feel like, okay, you're giving so much to us. There's so much input and value. What can we give back? But it seems like it's also a lot of fun for them and value to them to be part of this group, because there's just so much knowledge flowing in the meetings that we have that people really enjoy being there.
Petra Hurtado:To your question in terms of what goes into the report so we're doing the trend scouting really year round. So usually we already start a new list when we're still working on the you know final edits of the next trend report and in many cases we end up with a list of over 500 different topics. Some of them are trends, some of them are observations, some of them are opinions. It's really a whole mix of different stuff. So the first thing that we're usually doing is verifying what is a trend and what are things that are valuable signals where we feel like there's really a high chance that they could become trends.
Petra Hurtado:We use those, have another messy list with those and then we obviously have to prioritize, and what we usually use are three criteria. One is the impact that a trend could have in the future. The second one is the preparedness of planners, so really bringing it down to the planning profession and looking at okay, do planners know how to deal with this or is this something that we should really highlight to create the awareness about it? And then the third one is certainty. How certain is it that either this will have an impact or a signal can become a trend? How certain is that?
Stephanie Rouse:And you mentioned about how the pace of change is really what's becoming more prominent, and especially in tech, and AI is definitely one of those. I think, seeing from last trend report to this trend report, just the use and the explosion of AI has really rapidly increased in just the past year. It's being used in so many facets and has both amazing potential as well as some serious environmental risks. Can you discuss what you see as the ideal path forward for AI that balances both the risk and rewards?
Petra Hurtado:I think that's really the million dollar question of the time that we're living in, right, and if I had an answer to it, I would probably not sit here right now. I think it's really the question that a lot of you know decision makers, be it, you know, employers, but also politicians and others are trying to answer, because, on the one hand, as you say, there's so many opportunities that could come out of this technology Although we also need to, you know, really look critically at it, because it all depends on the data that feeds in, on how we interpret things, how we use it. But then it has so many negative implications, as we talked about this year in the trend report. When it comes to the environment, just the use of energy and water to keep these data centers running, it's literally insane, and the fact that we're actually doing this, knowing that we have all these issues such as climate change and others that are just getting exacerbated by this, is mind boggling. Change and others that are just getting exacerbated by this is mind-boggling.
Petra Hurtado:But really finding a way to balance the benefits with the negative implications is hard to do when you don't really know yet how far this technology can really take us. So you know. In short, I really don't have an answer, as you can probably see, but it's something that we need to figure out. Probably see, but it's something that we need to figure out, and I think one way to do that is really to continue tracking this evolution of this technology, educating ourselves about it, really understanding what are the shortcomings of it and what are the things that can be really done with it, and learning along the way and, yeah, I'm hopeful that, you know, many decision makers are doing that so that at some point, we can figure out how to regulate it where it needs to be regulated, where to give freedom to, you know, experiment where it's ethically okay to do so.
Jennifer Hiatt:Well, and speaking of climate change, of course, another one of our biggest factors the trend report mentions that it's leading to cascading impacts, especially around wildfires. So can you walk through the concept of cascading impacts and how planners need to start thinking about preventing these cascading impacts?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, so we talked about the topic of cascading impacts and cascading hazards quite a bit at APA. We also have a lot of resources on this topic available. But, simply put, it means that natural hazards don't happen in isolation, right, and they can lead to additional issues down the line. And in this year's report, one of our focus topics was really the intersection of heat, drought, wildfires and air pollution, which are all obviously very closely interconnected, and we also looked at secondary impacts such as threats to transportation networks. So we mentioned the buckling of railway tracks that really causes more and more issues with increasing numbers of heat days, the impacts on the energy grid, right, and then many other infrastructure systems. We also looked into topics such as, you know, crop loss due to drought, but also due to flooding. So there are many impacts or many different hazards involved here.
Petra Hurtado:One other one that might seem, you know, a little unrelated but kind of fits into this topic as well, is the questioning of carbon offsets, which a lot of you know company have been using as their green branding, where they really had to find, you know, different places to offset the CO2 emissions that they're creating. And the question really there is what happens if the forest that was dedicated to your carbon offset suddenly burns down in a wildfire, like how can that still be a carbon offset? It obviously is not, and so there's a lot of questioning around that topic. But yeah, the main issue is really that we are dealing with so many different natural hazards at this point and their interconnection just really become almost like a snowball effect and have impacts on so many issues and so many systems that we, as planners are really, you know, responsible for working on planning for all of that.
Stephanie Rouse:So one of the more fun and positive trends in the report involves fungi and its amazing potential to help us, which is ironic given one of the more popular recent TV shows, the Last of Us, where fungi did the exact opposite. So this is a learn and watch trend. So nothing imminent, but what do you see as one of their more immediate applications?
Petra Hurtado:So fungi in general have been essential to human life for a long time, especially in the medical field. They have been in use and obviously life-saving for many. I think in our field there is a lot of experimentation going on right now, a lot of piloting, which is really why we kept it in the learn and watch time frame. I would say it's really important for us to really learn about these things and be aware of them, because I think there's a lot of potential, especially when it comes to building materials, but also creating materials that can replace plastics. So especially and that's my personal opinion I think the way we use concrete as a, you know, construction material and the way we use plastics in general in our lives is just really concerning, and my hope is that you know, with some of the experiments that are going on right now with fungi, that we can potentially find some more sustainable and environmentally responsible solutions with fungi to replace plastics and concrete and some of these weird polluting materials.
Stephanie Rouse:I was just listening to a 99% invisible episode last night on my drive back from our conference and it was talking about brutalist architecture and all the concrete that goes into it and they were saying how in the US I think it was just the US, but that the one thing we consume more of than water, or the next thing we consume the most of is concrete and just how prevalent is everywhere and environmentally not a great material to use so much of.
Petra Hurtado:Absolutely, and I mean we mentioned another trend, or actually two trends, last year. There's obviously more interest now also in mass timber, which there's a lot of trial and error right now happening as well. One other one that I found really interesting is with the technology of carbon capture. There are experiments and pilots right now to actually create building materials, such as concrete, out of the carbon capture technology. So I think there is a lot of interesting stuff on the horizon. We'll see where that's going to go over the next years also, especially considering the political environment right now.
Jennifer Hiatt:I appreciated the idea of the post-work era and greeting someone with what interests them instead of what do you do. First question is who are you? But your second is so what do you do? But more leisure time can have negative impacts on local communities. So how should planners be thinking about protecting local quality of life when so many budgets depend on outside tourism dollars?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, so also my favorite topic, to be honest. Well, you know, I would say, when it comes to leisure time, maybe from the outside in there might be, you know, negative impacts. Talking about tourism, I can talk some more about that. But I also see a great opportunity here for planners, especially because when you have the opportunity to rethink your community programming and especially how we do community engagement right, if you suddenly have a community where everyone has more time to actually really engage, maybe become more interested in, you know, shaping their community, shaping their neighborhood and being involved in this, it can really take community engagement to a new level. Right now, I know this is always a challenge to you know get the community together, to really get a diverse group of community members together, because, you know, usually it's the ones who, at the time of the meeting, don't have to work or don't have to take care of their kids or whatever else it might be.
Petra Hurtado:So in many cases, you have the usual suspects there. So I think there's an opportunity to really create more diversity in that part of planning, if it's done right. But then obviously, as you mentioned, the other side of the picture is, you know, if we have more leisure time, we have more time to travel, and we already see the increase in tourism. Honestly, I have to say, mass tourism is not really a new thing. A lot of places have, you know, struggled with this in one way or another. A lot of communities have been depending on tourism, in some cases seasonal, in some cases, you know, around the year.
Petra Hurtado:I think what's new and again coming back to the theme of accelerating change is that things like, for example, airbnb, exacerbated this phenomenon of mass tourism and really made it creep into things like the housing crisis. Right, because suddenly we use apartments and places that are actually dedicated for people to live in that city to rent them to tourism, and so I see the problem more on that end, to see what contributes to it, to actually creep into other challenges that we are already struggling to solve, and that's where I think the planners really come in, to figure out how can we change that tweak it. Create policies to prevent the negative impacts on the community in that sense, create policies to prevent the negative impacts on the community in that sense.
Stephanie Rouse:So scenario planning is becoming more prominent in the world of planning, used for long-range plans, hazard mitigation planning, and it's showing up here in the trend report. You identify various scenarios that show plausible futures for communities. How do you envision these scenarios being used in practice?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, I think it's important also to mention that we are talking here specifically about exploratory scenario planning. So it's not normative scenario planning where you try to figure out an alternative between you know how to get from A to B, for example, as we've done that for a long time in transportation planning. It's really to, you know, look at different emerging trends and the uncertainties related to them and how they might play out in the future. So the scenarios that we put out in the reports are really meant to be, you know, examples on how it's done, and we really want to showcase that this can be a fun and creative activity, even though a lot of times topics might seem dystopian, and we also want to be provocative, to really get people's minds going when we create some of these future scenarios. The main intention here is really to encourage people to use this method in their work, especially when we work with the community, because, you know, everyone can do scenario planning. You don't have to be a foresight expert, you don't have to be a planner, everyone can do it. And, again, it gets people's minds going. It helps us to. You know, look at uncertainty and sometimes in a fun way. Right, it's very engaging, it's simple and it's a great tool when again working with the community if you want to, for example, create a community vision that is really based on reality and on changes around us.
Petra Hurtado:A lot of times, you know, we create a community vision that is totally unrelated to what's happening around us, because everyone just puts out their wish list without acknowledging that the world will continue to turn. So it's about, you know, using these scenarios to really figure out, based on realistic assumptions, what could the future be, and then really decide with the community what is that preferred future from all of these different options, and then really creating plans that help us to get to that preferred future. So what needs to happen today, in the next year, in the next five years, so that in 10 years, we actually reach this preferred future? Obviously, every community needs to figure out for themselves what are the topics, what are the trends, the emerging trends that are most relevant to us and that still create uncertainties right now, and then use those.
Petra Hurtado:So, again, the scenarios that we offer in the report are very general. I doubt that you know, there's a one community that can kind of use them as they are. They're really mainly meant to showcase the method, to create some provocation but to really also show that you know this is a good method to use in planning. And yeah, they are very general in the report so I would not recommend to just use them one on one the way they are. So communities really have to think about tailor them to their needs and to their priorities to make sense of it.
Jennifer Hiatt:As a dog person, I appreciated the fact that more cities are ensuring dog-friendly spaces, which is just one of the examples of the need for evolving public space. How should planners be thinking about the evolving need for outdoor space, post-pandemic and people's shifted needs regarding that outdoor space, because not everybody likes dogs. I get that too, even though I am a dog person.
Petra Hurtado:Well, you know, we see all kinds of pets on the streets these days. One of my neighbors actually walks their cat, so there's diversity. On that end as well, I would say. You know, the COVID-19 pandemic for sure has changed for many how we approach life and what needs we have, be it at home, be it work, and also be it in public space. But I think there's a lot of impacting factors that have always changed and evolved these needs, be it technology that obviously plays a big part social norms, generational values, all of that.
Petra Hurtado:And we really wanted to raise some awareness of this in this year's report. On the one hand, because it is such a planning topic right and public space has always been part of what right and public space has always been part of what we do and public spaces have always been evolving. But again, I feel like I'm repeating myself a lot in this podcast this time, but it's again. This accelerating change is also happening here, and there's so many things right now where we really start wondering you know, what does that mean for public space? And the booming pet industry is one that really stuck out, we also mentioned in the report. Today in the US, there are more households with pets than households with kids, which is really interesting, you know.
Petra Hurtado:Also, when you look into, you know, playgrounds versus dog parks. But we also, for example, pointed out a really interesting trend, and you might have observed that as well that a lot of people don't use headphones anymore in public but still watch YouTube videos or listen to music or whatever else, and then suddenly the whole bus or the whole park need to listen to whatever they're watching. Quite sure where that is coming from right now, also, given the situation that there's so many, you know, new headphones, you know noise cancelling, whatever else coming out in all designs and colours and shapes, but somehow, you know, there's a whole new approach on how you actually behave in public space and what does that mean to? You know social norms and other things, but we also, you know, looked at, you know, for example, gender-related trends, where clearly important voices are suddenly being heard. For example, you know, as women, it's just a fact that we more often need a bathroom and it's just, you know, not as easy.
Petra Hurtado:As for others to you know, do what we need to do there, and so there is a trend towards, you know, analyzing the gaps in public space in terms of where do we need more public bathrooms, for example. The other thing that we were looking at in that context of public space is also homelessness and how it's being approached in different cities, and you know what it means to sleep in public space and where it's okay to do so and where there's, you know, regulations popping up to actually not be allowed to do that anymore, what do you do as someone who doesn't have a home or a place with a roof right? The other thing, which you know has always been a topic, but I think is also increasing, is really the services that libraries are covering these days public services and public space. I find it very interesting how libraries are becoming really the place for many different needs these days and how libraries are actually approaching that. So that alone could be worth a whole podcast, I would say.
Petra Hurtado:And then the other thing that we also mentioned in the report and we talked a little bit about that last year too is this merging of analog, or real life, and digital right. We talked about the metaverse before. It's been quietly evolving. We call it the quiet metaversing. It's still a thing, especially when you look at business strategies, different companies, but it's also something you know that creeps into planning in terms of what are the things that people do, especially after the pandemic in the digital world, and what are the things that changed because of this in the real world, and how does that inform how we think about public spaces and their use. So I think I could go on and on and on. I just mentioned the topics that we specifically focused on in this year's trend report, but I think there's just a lot of things happening right now that just change how we live our lives, how we, you know, socially interact and how that, you know, plays into how public space needs are changing.
Stephanie Rouse:So accelerating change theme throughout this episode is one reason for the Trend Universe, a digital platform that's somewhat new and, as the report says, will be regularly updated. Can you talk about the resources that are located here and how listeners can use this tool?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah. So we obviously recognize that. You know, by the time the Trend Report gets published, we already started the next trend list. And you know, by the time the trend report gets published, we already started the next trend list. And you know new things are happening and so the world is not going to stop turning just because we are publishing a trend report. So we realized, well, the trend report can provide a great snapshot of what's important for the coming year and it obviously can be used as a tool for planners throughout the year.
Petra Hurtado:We do need to continuously track what's going on and we need to have a place where we can, you know, share that with planners and dynamically update it. So that's where the Trend Universe comes in, and this platform or website really has evolved over the last three years and we really started to just simply integrating it into the APA website. It was never really like the perfect tool to use, so we didn't really promote it as much as we could have. But we started to revamp that last year, also in partnership with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, to really make it a tool and make it something that planners can use in addition to the trend report. So the new version is expected to go online in May June-ish of this year. Content is already there right now too. It's just not very, I would say, not the best tool to use. It's not very usable right now.
Petra Hurtado:So what we will do is, in the new version, we will give really detailed information on every single trend that we ever mentioned in any of the trend reports. We include the updates for each of these trends and then link to resources where people can learn more about them, and it would really. It will provide some sort of tracking history of these trends. When did we start talking about the trend? What timeframes is it in right now, but from which timeframe did it come? So definitely an interesting thing to look at. When you look at AI, where we really started in the learn and watch, and then within just a couple of years it moved into the act now timeframes so you can really see also the pace of the dynamics and where things came from and where they are today. So around May June of this year, we will probably send out an announcement. Once that's happening, it should be really a tool that planners can use in addition to the trend report.
Jennifer Hiatt:There are so many things that pop up throughout the years you were just talking about. So what's the one thing that surprised you the most in the learn and watch section for this year's report?
Petra Hurtado:So, having done this work for over five years, at this point there's really not much that can surprise me at this point, which is really sad.
Petra Hurtado:But I would say one topic that I find fascinating and at the same time really disturbing and concerning is anything that goes on in outer space.
Petra Hurtado:Right, there's a lot going on, and I think every year in our report we focus on a different topic there, but it really ranges from trying to generate solar energy directly from the sun, mining minerals on Mars or the moon, even settling on Mars, right, like essentially adjusting human bodies to be able to live in a Martian environment, in a Martian environment, and so to me, it's just really concerning that we rather put billions or even trillions of dollars into this kind of work and this kind of research, instead of trying to use that money to figure out how we can live and be on our planet in a more sustainable way than what we're doing right now. So to me, it really seems like we're trying we're just going to deplete the current planet, and once that's happened, we have alternatives elsewhere, and I just don't think that that's a good idea. So this is very concerning to me and that's really why we've been tracking it so much to really be on top of what's going on there. But yeah, to me it's very concerning.
Stephanie Rouse:Yeah, there's plenty of utopian movies out there that show us that that is not the right approach and that it's disaster down the road anyways. Yeah, for sure. So our last question for all of our authors is a recommended reading, and since you're one of our few guests who've been on the show before, you've already given us some good ones, like Ministry of the Future, the Good Ancestor and Utopia for Realists. Do you have any other recommended readings that you'd throw out to our audience?
Petra Hurtado:I'm glad you mentioned the list that I already recommended, because my all-time favorite and really one of the books that got me really interested in, you know, practicing foresight and evolving this work is really the good ancestor by roman krasnerick. So you mentioned that. I must have mentioned that before.
Petra Hurtado:One book maybe that I read last year and that inspired really some of the content of the trend report for this year is the anxious generation by jonathan haidt, where he really lays out the concerns about, you know, what social media and cell phone use and all of that and smartphone use does to younger generations and how, you know, certain impacts on this generation did not only just come out of COVID, but then really how we handle, you know, social media use and all of that with younger generations, and we did have a big focus this year also on, you know, younger generations, also the topic of future generations, decolonizing the future, all of that, and also for us, you know, obviously an important aspect is to include younger people in our trend scouting to see how younger people see the future. But I think the concerning part really is how technologies and trends that you know the older generations are essentially creating are impacting younger generations negatively and how that later down the line might have major impacts on how we live in this world and how we deal with certain challenges. So definitely a very inspiring book that has a lot of data and analysis of that data on, you know, social media use and depression and anxieties among young people. That was very inspiring to me last year and inspired a lot of you know the thinking in our group and the way we look at trends and the way we, you know, see the importance of including young people in this work and the way we see the importance of including our people in this work.
Jennifer Hiatt:That book's been sitting on my shelf since I heard about it from a different podcast called Offline, and the to-read list is never finished, but I'm really excited to be able to hopefully get to that soon.
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, definitely recommend that.
Stephanie Rouse:Well, petra, thank you so much for joining us on the show again to talk, this time about the 2025 trend report. Thanks so much for having me.
Jennifer Hiatt:We hope you enjoyed this conversation with Petra Hurtado about the APA 2025 trend report. You can download the full report on APA's website, linked in the show notes, and remember to subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts and please rate, review and share the show show. Thank you for listening and we'll talk to you next time on booked on planning. Thank you.