This episode offers a glimpse into the 2024 Trend Report published by the American Planning Association, providing planners with the foresight to navigate our rapidly evolving world. The report is not just predicting the future it's equipping readers with the tools to shape it. Our discussion with Petra Hurtado illuminates how the trends detailed in the report will influence community development, technological advances, and societal shifts, all while emphasizing the necessity of integrating these insights into everyday urban planning.
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This episode offers a glimpse into the 2024 Trend Report published by the American Planning Association, providing planners with the foresight to navigate our rapidly evolving world. The report is not just predicting the future it's equipping readers with the tools to shape it. Our discussion with Petra Hurtado illuminates how the trends detailed in the report will influence community development, technological advances, and societal shifts, all while emphasizing the necessity of integrating these insights into everyday urban planning.
Show Notes:
Follow us on social media for more content related to each episode:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/booked-on-planning/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BookedPlanning
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This episode is brought to you by Confluence. Confluence is a professional consulting firm comprised of landscape architects, urban designers and planners. Their staff of 70 plus includes 39 licensed landscape architects and AICP certified planners. Confluence is comprised of energetic, creative and passionate people who are involved in making our communities better places to live. They assist clients on a wide range of public, educational, institutional and private sector projects. You're listening to the Booked On Planning Podcast, a project of the Nebraska chapter of the American Planning Association. In each episode we dive into how cities function by talking with authors on housing, transportation and everything in between. Join us as we get Booked on Planning. Welcome back, bookworms, to another episode of Booked on Planning. In this episode we talk with Petra Hurtado, phd, apa's Research Director, who we had on the show two years ago to talk about the first trend report. She's back again to cover the 2024 report just released earlier this year.
Jennifer Hiatt:I really love the trend report. It's one of my favorite things that APA puts out every year and it's such a joy to get to talk with Petra about, especially right after the national conference, where it was highly featured.
Stephanie Rouse:With hundreds of trends to cover, there's no way that we would get to all of them in this episode, but instead we talked about a few key trends and how to use the report. So, after finishing this episode, make sure to read through the report and with that, let's get into our conversation with Petra Hurtado. Petra, thank you for joining us again on Booked On Planning to talk about the 2024 trend report put out now for its third year by the American Planning Association. For our listeners who didn't catch the 2022 episode, where we covered the first trend report, can you give a little background as to how this report came about and how planners and other professionals can use it in their daily work?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, thanks so much for the opportunity to be here again. So the idea of the trend report really came out of two things. One is, I think we all are aware that we're living in a world of accelerating change. There's so many shifts around us be it technology, innovations, economic shifts, societal shifts, you name it and it's just really getting harder to keep track of all of these changes around us.
Petra Hurtado:And at the same time, you know, planners are supposed to plan for the future of their communities, and to be able to do that, we need to be aware of, you know, what the future might look like based on some of these changes around us, and so foresight is a methodology that helps us to include the future in what we're doing and in planning. That's, you know, really even more important given that we're planning for the future of our communities, and so we realized that identifying these external drivers of change can be a lot of work. Planners are busy as it is, so for us, providing the trend report is really an input for planners to be able to practice foresight in their work, to include foresight in their work, while not having to do all the time intense trend scanning, trend scouting, to be able to do that. So that's why, together with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, we decided to publish this annual report that gives planners the foresight that they need in their work without really adding additional burdens on their plate.
Jennifer Hiatt:With a report that's put out annually, it's hard to imagine that there are a lot of changes in any of the topics. We have the Act Now Prepare or Learn and Watch. But now that you've put out three of these reports, which category changes the most year to year and why do you think so?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, you know that's a good question, because that's a question that we always ask ourselves once the next trend report is out are we going to be able to get another trend report together next year? And we realize, yes, the world keeps turning and you know, items move from one time frame to another, new trends and signals are added to all time frames every year and I mean, as you can imagine, it's a very agile type of work. I would say the most significant shift that we've been observing over the last three, four years is really when it comes to technology innovation. Years is really when it comes to technology innovation. While we see shifts in all areas from economic trends, societal trends, environmental trends, you name it technology is for sure the area where, first of all, the pace of change is the fastest and most of the really disruptive changes are visible.
Stephanie Rouse:And one very specific topic under technology is AI, which is something that I feel I've seen a lot of change over just this last year, especially in the last several months. There was an APA webinar on the subject of AI in our profession, and it was so fascinating to think that we're at a point where all we have to do is a little front end setup of different parameters and staff reports, and then all you do is input an application and AI could spit out a staff report with recommendations for you. What do you find to be the most promising use of technology, and then also the most challenging?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, artificial intelligence is definitely the big topic there and you know, it's interesting, when you see how this topic has developed just over the last four years, that we've been doing this foresight work, because we really started four years ago with AI being in the watch and learn timeframes really the category of okay, let's see where this is going, let's learn more about it, let's try to understand it, and it really jumped from then to today into the act, now timeframe, so it really the development is fast and very disruptive.
Petra Hurtado:When it comes to AI, I think, even though there are already so many things that can be done with it, also in planning, we're probably still at the very beginning of all of that.
Petra Hurtado:Beginning of all of that and this technology will have major impacts on how we will do our work as planners and also how we're going to look at our communities and how our communities will live their lives.
Petra Hurtado:I see it as a positive development in the sense of all of the repetitive, usually boring type of work can be done by AI, if not now, then probably soon, and that will really free up some time for us as planners to do more of the actual meaningful planning work, such as engaging with our community members and really emphasizing the human factor of planning. The important part will be, however, that we really upskill ourselves, that we try to understand these tools and how to use them responsibly. We make sure we question the outputs. We can't just take them as they become, because obviously there's still a lot of things in terms of what data goes in, what happens in the black box and what comes out. So artificial intelligence is definitely the technology that I think is the most challenging, but also one that has the most opportunities to offer if we use it the right way and in a responsible way.
Stephanie Rouse:Yeah, yeah, I don't ever see planners as a profession going away. I like the fact that we can use the technology to take away the day-to-day mundane parts of our job and really focus on looking forward and more comprehensive and even on topics of like equity, which was one of the sections that I really found interesting. The persisting transportation inequities topic really found interesting the persisting transportation inequities topic. This year the report focused on the myriad of new transportation systems and actions that can help reduce inequities and in Lincoln we've adopted a number of the proposed policies, like eliminating parking minimums in some of our districts, investing in our transit through a new transit center that's going to be breaking ground in the next year, hopefully and investing in electric mobility. What do you see as the most important action communities can take in regards to equitable transportation?
Petra Hurtado:I think the important question we need to continue asking ourselves when planning for equity and, in this case, equitable transportation systems, is who's currently not included, and that's where the gaps are and where our work is needed right. So, looking at some of these existing and emerging trends, I think we should see opportunities instead of challenges. You know, technological, but also social innovation is really at a point where there are so many options on how our transportation system could look like, and we just need to embrace these ideas and use them to fill existing gaps, instead of creating new gaps by putting laws and regulations out there that don't allow some of these new emerging systems. So really trying to include them in a way that it's meaningful and that can create equitable ways of moving around town.
Jennifer Hiatt:I feel like the term polycrisis has become a larger topic of conversation in the last year. We've been reading Island Press's annual Resilience Matters report the last several years and several of the featured articles referenced this year also reference polycrisis, and I thought the introduction to that section summarized the threat pretty succinctly, which says the climate emergency and its close connection to current global challenges, such as food insecurity, the migrant crisis, economic welfare, resource scarcity and social disputes, highlights the high risk of failing to mitigate and adapt to climate change on a global scale. This is such a massive and interconnected issue. How can planners even begin to tackle it?
Petra Hurtado:It takes a planner right. That's our new hashtag at APA. Well, you know, I think planners can play, or have to play, a crucial role in all of this, but obviously this will take efforts of many different stakeholders from many different professions, plus political will and also the willingness of everyone in our communities to change the way we live and to change how we behave in this world. And all of these different crises are related to elements such as land use, housing, transportation and so on, which are all obviously planning topics. So I think a role of the planner is certainly to be someone that usually we see things from a holistic standpoint. We don't just look at one thing or one issue in a silent way. So I think that's one thing where I feel planners are really equipped with the right skills and attitudes really to help tackle these issues.
Stephanie Rouse:And then again.
Petra Hurtado:you know, as I mentioned, a lot of these issues creep into what planners already do anyway, so it just makes sense to be part of the solution there.
Stephanie Rouse:Basically, that's describing what we do with our comprehensive plans. We're taking a look at all these different topics and how they all interact, and a lot of the comprehensive plans especially the ones that have been winning awards the last couple of years are kind of breaking apart those rigid sections and they're interweaving all the different sections together, which you really need to do when you're tackling this issue of like a poly crisis that affects so many different areas. Absolutely yeah. So one of the topics listed in the prepare section of the report is the use of crowdsourcing and immersive technologies and their application to the planning profession. On the one hand, it is exciting to think that we could gamify the planning process and receive almost real-time data on anything from water use to pedestrian activity, or that we'll soon be able to drop a redevelopment project into a metaverse twin of our city and people could see for themselves the impacts of the project. But it also adds a level of complexity to the planning process. How should planners start thinking about integrating crowdsourcing and immersive technology into their projects?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, I have to say I see a lot of opportunities there.
Petra Hurtado:I'm a big fan of what's happening there on this horizon because, I think a lot of times, a reason for why certain plans or projects are being opposed and maybe therefore can't be implemented is because of the lack of imagination of what it would be like to live in a community that the plan suggests.
Petra Hurtado:And so simple example you know, if we talk about densification or the idea of the 15 minute city, that's now also part of you know, conspiracy theories where people say, oh, those are climate lockdowns and it's all bad stuff and can't densify and it's just all words that we can't use anymore as planners.
Petra Hurtado:But at the same time, if I take, you know, one of these dense 15-minute type neighborhoods from you know, any city, like Vienna, copenhagen, paris, you name it I have not once heard anybody say it's horrible to be in that place. So I think if these immersive technologies can help us to help our communities, imagine what the quality of life would be like in some of these plans, that would just be such a great step towards what reality could be, instead of, you know, making up thoughts about things that are just based on a piece of paper that most people don't really understand or can't read, or throws out jargon and words that just don't resonate with someone. So I think they will help us to bring what the world could look like, based on a plan, closer to the people and therefore, you know, whatever the feedback will be, it will be better informed by what the experience is through that immersive technology instead of just, you know, being stuck with words that just don't resonate with someone's political or otherwise views.
Jennifer Hiatt:I actually got to through a friend who has kind of a more tech savvy background than I do. He was working on a plan and he got to drop a project into a map that we could all kind of experience and it was really janky, because AI is not quite there yet the buildings that we want to put in, because it's like, oh, how's that density going to impact the community or whatever and I'm so excited to be able to just drop them into a virtual area and be like, walk around and see it's not going to do anything to our community except benefit it Exactly. The trend report identifies geoengineering as a trend to watch as well, and examples include cloud seeding, which actually terrifies me I'm not going to lie, you're the only one Direct air capture and solar radiation management. It seems like governments will throw money at almost anything except actually encouraging good urbanization practices to reduce global warming. So how can planners start to prepare for all of the unknowable outcomes from these types of experiments?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah, that's the million dollar question, right. I think for planners, the focus should really be right now to continue implementing sustainable urban practices, which, by the way, have so many benefits in addition to their climate benefits talking about physical health, mental health, well-being, social connections, all of that. The TRAN report obviously is here to neutrally point out what's happening around us, and the reason why this topic is in the report is because we need to be aware of it and we need to learn more about what this geoengineering actually is and also what consequences could really be and the related risks. Obviously, there's not much we can prepare for it yet, which is why it's really in the learn and watch time frame, but we need to understand that this is happening and, as you pointed out, we don't want this to be the solution and a reason for us not being interested in sustainability concepts anymore.
Petra Hurtado:I'm personally very concerned about these technologies. We also provided some scenarios on where this could be going in the report, and one fear there is, of course, that this could lead to people not seeing the necessity anymore to implement climate action because geoengineering will fix it and so we're all good there, and so I don't think that that's going to be the reality. So this is one of the cases where I say you know, we should continue doing what we've been doing, what's in our control right now in terms of how we can mitigate climate change. At the same time, we need to be aware that this is going on right now too, and no one really knows where it's going and what the consequences will really be.
Jennifer Hiatt:I know that science will come to our rescue in many ways, but that one's concerning Everyone, everything that we listed there. And speaking of science, agricultural production makes up the highest percentage of land use in the United States at this point, but we know that current agricultural practices will most likely be impacted by climate change. 2 million square miles, or almost half of all of US farmland, is permafrost in Siberia that could become available for agricultural production due to climate change. What repercussions should planners be considering as we think about a shift in local and location of agricultural land?
Petra Hurtado:Yeah. So I think the way agriculture and food production more broadly is done these days is very concerning from a climate standpoint, but also from a health standpoint and ethical questions and so on. But in general it's a very unsustainable industry and meanwhile in this country, in the US, we have a meat consumption like nowhere else in the world. There's 230 pounds of meat per person per year being consumed. So, to be totally honest, I think the permafrost in Siberia is not our biggest concern at this point. It's just something to potentially keep in mind when looking at current global dynamics and where all of this might take us in the far future. However, I think a lot will have to change, starting from how we grow our food today and how and what we eat in the end, and so many of the developments and decisions that were made in the past about our food were really, you know, economic and political decisions, and I think this needs to shift to really social and environmental decisions that prioritize health of our people as well as the health of the planet in mind. So the Siberia and permafrost situation is something that we put out there again, also in a learn and watch timeframe. You know, we will also have to see if those places are actually, if they have nutrients at all and if we can actually grow things there.
Petra Hurtado:But I think what was important for us, and why we decided to have food production agriculture as one of our deep dives in this year's report, is really that there's a lot of concerning developments out there.
Petra Hurtado:There's also a lot of you know innovation out there, and those are just things where we just need to again keep watching, see where it's going and ultimately, how it's going to potentially affect land use in rural areas, but also in urban areas. We have in last year's trend report, a scenario where we look at you know how people from cities started moving out into rural areas during COVID because now they can work remotely. Meanwhile, we create meat and other agricultural products in laboratories in the city. So is there going to be a shift between urban and rural in the future? I don't know if that's what the future is going to be, but there's a lot of scenarios on the horizon of where this could go and again, it's something that we as planners really need to see you know how and where should we get involved and what are the things that we need to keep watching and learn more about.
Stephanie Rouse:I think that's one of the one things that I really enjoy about the learn and watch section. It's nothing that I have to immediately address right now, but it's really interesting to see all the different trends out there and the stuff that could come up and to at least have like a base understanding, in case somehow a conversation about that pops up in my own work and then we start to see that becoming more of an immediate trend more of an immediate trend.
Petra Hurtado:Exactly, and you know we did have the trend about local food systems planning in one of our previous trend reports and that is obviously in the Act Now timeframe. So that's where planners are directly involved in helping preventing some of these food deserts in cities to really become issues for the local communities and really finding solutions for everyone to have access to healthy food. But obviously you know everything we just talked about related to the permafrost as well, as you know some of these laboratory experiments. I would definitely see that in the Learn and Watch for now.
Stephanie Rouse:So you already mentioned upskilling in one of our other questions.
Petra Hurtado:Which of the upskilling or plan tech actions identified in the report do you think planners should prioritize, focusing on so it really depends on what planning field someone is in, but what everyone has in common is that we do need to upskill in one way or another. The world is changing, as we can see, based on this annual trend report, and we need to be ready for these changes.
Petra Hurtado:In general, I would say artificial intelligence skills and, more broadly, skills related to digitalization are an absolute must today. I don't think that anyone will be able to do these kind of jobs without those skills in the future. But at the same time, we also need to strengthen our human skills to help people get closer together. I think, during COVID especially, we had an acceleration of both of these issues that on the one hand, digitalization was speeding up because suddenly we couldn't be together and a lot of things needed to be done online. So we have the technical skills needed for this, but then at the same time, now we really have to see what can be done to bring people closer together again, and for that we will just need better human skills, and that includes things like, you know, listening, empathy and compassion, conflict resolution, things like that that used to not really be on the curriculum of a planning program.
Jennifer Hiatt:Every day I remind myself I need to have better human skills like that. Always our final question this is Booked on Planning. What are a few books that you suggest our readers should?
Petra Hurtado:pick up. That's really the most difficult question, because there's so many good books out there.
Jennifer Hiatt:We used to ask our authors for just one book, and we found that we could not do that because no one could limit it to one book.
Petra Hurtado:So right, right. So I have a list of a few with different backgrounds. So, obviously, talking about the future, one book that I can recommend to everyone is by Kim Stanley Robbins on the Ministry for the Future, very well written and very well researched. I have to say, while it's a fiction book, science fiction book, it's still very close to reality Too close, maybe. Another one that I can recommend, if someone is still kind of struggling with this idea of practicing foresight and the long-term versus short-term decision-making, is by Roman Krasnarek, who wrote the book the Good Ancestor. That's a lot about long term thinking and how that developed over time. Let's see maybe a third one by Rutger Bregman, the book Utopia for Realists, who talks a lot about, you know, utopian ideas that have been implemented in other places in the world very successfully. So it's very inspirational.
Stephanie Rouse:Those are all really great books, and I love that you started with a fiction book, because we were just interviewing another author this morning who had mentioned a whole host of utopian books and was the first person to ever give us a fiction book. So I like the new trend. That's good. Well, petra, thank you so much for joining us to talk about the 2024 trend report, and I'd encourage all of our listeners to go to APA's website and check it out for themselves. Thank you so much for the invitation to be here.
Jennifer Hiatt:We hope you enjoyed this conversation with Petra Hurtado on the 2024 trend report. You can download your free copy at planningorg and remember to subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts and please really do take the time to rate, review and share the show. Thank you.